It is altogether too easy to dismiss last week’s win as immaterial. It was two poor teams going head-to-head after all. But, there was a certain element of fight within the WFT squad on display. The larger truth of the matter is that this was a team completely stripped of player inventory at key positions, yet still fought through for a win. It was not a thing of beauty. That’s hardly surprising. And, the team managed to add drama by treating the ball like the proverbial Hot Potato coming down the stretch. Still, as other teams in similar situations have devolved into dysfunction and acrimony on public display this unit has not. This is bad news for the “Fire Everybody” crowd. Adam Peters emphasized “High Character” people in the staffing process. The dividends from that include the lack of drama from within the building during a most difficult and trying season.
Juice and Squeeze
One sentiment throughout elements of the fanbase was neatly summarized in one post on another site: “The juice wasn’t worth the squeeze. This win will cost draft position.” It’s a curious mindset. When Jimmy Johnson introduced the “Point System Card” for Drafting then people started looking at the points value of a draft pick as a sort of currency. It is within the 32-Front Offices as they trade places. But, the absolute production outcome of a selected player is totally disconnected from that points system. The Draft appears to be an ordered system on the face of it. However, the randomness of outcome is pronounced.
Just a quick glance at the 2020 Draft shows that there are players to be had pretty much anywhere in the first three-rounds. The “Pro Bowl” honors are not exactly a direct correlation to player value. There is a loose relationship between the two, however. The 2020 Draft produced 10-PB honors in the 1st-Round; 8-more in the 2nd-Round; and 5-more in the 3rd-Round. In the final 4-Rounds only 1-player has grabbed PB Honors so far, WFT’s own Tyler Biadasz. There are 3-more from the Undrafted pool. The point being that any pick in the 1st Round should be a high-value return. Per Tankathon.com Washington drafts at #8. Odds are really favorable that there will be a good player available there. For you “Tankers” out there, take Aaron Rodgers‘ advice and “R-E-L-A-X.”
There’s something unsettling about watching a game while hoping your team loses. Yet the hand-wringers are out there doing just that in volume. And, it isn’t confined to Washington’s fanbase either. Any of the fanbases of teams in the bottom-10 are going through the same thing. It’s an approach nurtured by years of losing. Washington had a magical year last season. But, it came at the end of decades of woeful losing football. This year the magic that materialized was of the evil kind. For many it was a return to the norm. It will take years of success to get that mindset flushed.
Somewhere down the line maybe Washington’s fanbase will be like Pittsburgh’s; Entitled, Arrogant, and Dismissive. They screech to fire the Coach without a losing season on a long resume while wailing loud lamentations about yet another playoff season not producing a Title. Ahhh, such fun! It will take a lot of winning to get to where this fanbase gets to try on that suit of clothes.
Speaking of the 2020 Draft the WFT lost its last four games to secure the #2 selection in the entire Draft. The Tankers got their wish. With it the team selected Chase Young. It’s a cautionary tale. But, it reminds that if a Front Office can’t effectively evaluate talent then where they pick in the Draft is without any real consequence.
NFC Least?
If one were to just look at games-won by the sum of the teams in each Division something stands out: The NFC East is tied for the least amount of wins. The Division has 21-wins to their credit. So does the AFC North. It used to be THE dominant Division in the game. No longer. The NFC West had 35-wins headed into the week. That’s 5-clear of The AFC East and AFC West, each with 30-wins. The NFC South only has 23-wins.
The WFT is in a Division having a down year. For all the playoff talk there was about Dallas they still only have 6-wins total. And, a full one-half of them came from within the Division. Philadelphia should be up by more games over this lot than 2 in the Lost Column. For all the world to see for most of the season the Eagles have been simply pedestrian. They had the good fortune to not be challenged…or maybe not. They aren’t honed to a sharp edge by any means. Steel sharpens steel is the old adage. Philly has been sharpened by Sta-Puft marshmallows.
The Green Enigma
Philadelphia has not been the dominant defending champion this season that was expected. The strengths of the team are the two lines. The Offensive Line is particularly good at run blocking. The Defensive Line is a wrecking crew. Last year’s Super Bowl was over early because Jalen Carter and that bunch up front on the Defense obliterated the Chiefs’ poor Offensive Line. Super Bowl MVP was given to the winning team’s Quarterback because that’s what the writers do when the real MVP was a unit not an individual. This year those strengths aren’t showing as well. Injuries are a part of it. Premiere Tackles Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter are both out today affecting both lines. But, something else has been occuring.
For whatever reason the team has not been leaning on their strength on Offense; running the ball. For one-half of their games the team has not rushed for over 100-yards. Looking at those games the rush attempts number are surprisingly low. There are numbers like 18-20-and 11 attempts. Saquon Barkley had over 2000-yards rushing last year. This year the number will be between 1000 and 1300. Currently he is at 940-yards. It’s a precipitous drop. Jalen Hurts‘ rushing numbers are down also. Last year he ended the Regular Season at 630-yards on 150-attempts in 15-games This year it’s 376-yards on 95-attempts after 14-games. The declines in rushing allude to a larger picture.
Philly’s most effective scheme is to run Barkley AND send Hurts on designed runs. That gets Defenses into Cover-1 and Cover-3 schemes. Jalen Hurts is a terrific athlete. But, he’s not a terrific passer. His throwing strengths come against Man-coverages. His two Receivers are better than the vast majority of cover Corners. A.J. Brown man-up on anyone other than Patrick Surtain or Sauce Gardner is advantage Philly. When Barkley and Hurts get to running well Defenses counter by crowding up into the “Box” to stop it. That leaves the Corners on an island. Or the Defense goes into a “Cover 3” setup. It’s zone, with a big “But” attached. The Weak-side Safety, in particular is looking in at the QB. If a team is running the ball well then that Safety is particularly vulnerable to Play Action. That leaves one of the big-2 Receivers man-up on a Corner. That’s the formula for success for this team. For some reason they haven’t followed the formula.
It isn’t a State Secret that Hurts is not good throwing the ball against true Zone coverages. There were even articles during the season where teammates were calling him out for it. If your team does not have elite Corners, going to a Zone like Quarters or Tampa 2 is a way to get them help with those stud Receivers. So, what was Philly’s response? Throw, throw, and throw some more. A.J. Brown was chirping that he wasn’t getting the ball enough. To grease that squeaky wheel they abandoned their success path. It bit them. The result was a team that looked disjointed.
You can bet Dan Quinn has taken note. His one Corner came off the street last week to give a solid performance. But, it wasn’t against either of these two stars. Expect a LOT of Zone coverage from the WFT. They average about 2/3rds Zone anyway. Today should be higher.
The “Tell” early in this game is what Philly does early. If they start pounding the rock and stick with it, watch out. If they come out slinging it all over the yard then Washington has a chance…provided decent coverage, which is hardly a given.
Limping Home
Left Tackle Laremy Tunsil injured an Oblique muscle in the win vs the Giants. As Grant Paulsen predicted in real time last week, Tunsil suffering an injury would have a direct effect on Jayden Daniels‘ rest of season. Sure enough come Tuesday the team shut Daniels down for the rest of the slate. He remains on the Active Roster so that he can practice. Tunsil is out for the count also. His season was terrific. If this team had a winning record he’d be in the mix for All-Pro. So, we’ll get to see how young Ben Coleman does. Chris Paul has been outstanding at Left Guard this year. But, he’s a Free Agent come the off-season. Bet your boots he’s going to get paid…here or somewhere else. It will be good to see just what is there with Coleman.
Marcus Mariota is going to start more games than Daniels for the season. That gets established this week. As bad as this season has been without Marcus it would have been much worse. He’s one of the top 2 or 3-QB2s in the game. How many teams are out there that would be better off with him at QB1 than what they have now? Somewhere around five or so teams would see him as an upgrade. Ask the Dolphins. They’re benching their $53-Million per-season QB1, bypassing QB2 and going straight to the 7-th Round Rookie pick. Mariota is better than anyone in that QB Room, by a lot. So, will Marcus come back here next year? The roster is loaded with such questions.
December Madness
If you’re wondering why this game is on Saturday it’s because it can be. The Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 was designed to keep professional football from overwhelming High School and College football. The NFL is prohibited from broadcasting games within 75-miles of either High School or College Regular Season games. Since these are on Fridays and Saturdays the NFL has to wait for the College Regular Season to end with the Army/Navy game before scheduling games on those days. Lots of pundits call the Law “antiquated” and “weird.” But, the fact remains that it is effective. The National Basketball Association used to own Christmas. Much of that was driven by mid-week dates. Football was for weekends. No more.
The NFL has hegemony hard-wired into the DNA. When the brain trust decided to expand to Christmas the NBA hold on the TV day evaporated. There are 3-games on Christmas Day this year. Even though college football is a de-facto Minor League the insatiable appetite for money by the Owners means it would not hesitate to go toe-to-toe with college on Saturdays if they could. The business of college football is such a hot mess it’s doubtful they could muster a serious defense. That old Broadcast Bill is saving their bacon.
One of those three-games on Christmas Day is Dallas vs. Washington. Dallas is eliminated today with a Washington loss or tomorrow with a Dallas loss. So, that game is not only coming on short rest, it may be completely irrelevant to everything but Draft position. By the end of it Washington will have played 3-games in 12-days. Each game comes at them with one less day of rest than the game before. This comes at the end of a season when the recovery times lengthen and cold temperatures exacerbate matters. At the very time more rest is needed the League provides less. It’s not a good way to preserve players and the quality of the product. The Money Counters don’t care a bit.
If you’ve ever driven by a large field that has an old, sprawling tree in the middle of it you may wonder why did it get spared when the field was cleared. They were often called “Mule Trees.” It was one spot of shade in an otherwise sunbaked oven. The farmer would give the mules or oxen a respite in the cool shade to keep them from overheating on hot days. NFL Owners would have cut the tree down and sold it to the Lumber Mill. Why not? Who cares about the mules? A new batch of them comes every year.
Game Information
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: FOX, Dec. 20, 5 p.m.
Announcers: Joe Davis, Greg Olsen, Pam Oliver
D.C. Radio: Bram Weinstein (play-by-play), London Fletcher (analyst), Logan Paulsen (analyst) BIG 100 WBIG-FM
