The National Football League originally crowned its champion based solely on regular season record. Hence the first champion team was the Akron Pros in 1920 a franchise long since lost to the ether. The first real Championship Game took place in 1933. There the Chicago Bears defeated the New York Giants 23-21. Today’s Super Bowl is the League’s 94’th Title Game. There have been blowouts, cliff-hangers, and everything in between. What is in store today? We will all have to tune in and find out.
Going Long
IF you had this Super Bowl matchup in mind last August then you passed on a chance to make a nice sack of coin. Baltimore, Buffalo, and Philadelphia were all listed at the top of the Board at “+700.” A $100 bet would return 700. Those three and Kansas City at +800 were the only ones less than +1000. Seattle was listed at +6000; New England at +8000. The WFT, for reference was listed at +1800. This is a most unlikely pairing.
Every year come Training Camp time comes the exercise that only rarely yields correct answers. There are anywhere from 4-7 teams making the playoffs that failed to make it the previous season. Who are they? Some of the best in the punditry business take a crack at it. Most can’t find even three teams that will emerge. This after analyzing rosters, schemes, schedules, and consulting Miss Rudolph for medical issues. Washington surely was a shocker last year. This year the big surprise was New England. Seattle had barely missed the year before. But, here they both are against staggering odds; one of them leaving California with a Title in hand.
It’s a good lesson to remember in August coming when the naysaying nabobs have cast final verdicts before the beginning of proceedings. The relationship between prognostications and results is at best tenuous.
Sam and Sam
The NFL is a closed system. A perturbation one place has effects elsewhere and everywhere. Take the case of one Sam Darnold. He was drafted #3 in 2018 by the New York Jets. Darnold in his college days was the guy with the golden arm and a ten-cent head. He could throw any ball any where. But, when pressured he’d throw it up and let the gods figure out who would catch it. Sam was the second Quarterback taken in the top-10 that year. He was behind Baker Mayfield. Baker has settled into a nice spot on his fourth team. Sam was drafted 4-slots ahead of Josh Allen; last year’s League MVP and the face of the Buffalo franchise. The #10 Draft Pick that year was Josh Rosen. Within three-years he was out of football.
Three years after being drafted Sam was run out of New York after a record of 13-25. Then came two forgettable years at Carolina; record 8-9. Then one year in San Francisco; record 0-1. At this point in the proceedings this is a high draft pick QB labelled “Damaged Goods.” The play for him was to sign as a backup somewhere. Perhaps the starter would go down and give him one more chance to see what he could do. Lady Luck suddenly took a shine to Mr. Darnold. First, he landed in Minnesota. The Head Coach there, Kevin O’Connell is regarded as quite the Quarterback Whisperer. Then, the apparent QB1, Rookie J.J.McCarthy mangled his knee in pre-season practice. Sam was now the QB1 on a team with two elite Wide Receivers. He made the most of it.
After a 14-3 season the old USC Sam Darnold made an appearance during the Vikings’ playoff game. He would throw 1-Touchdown. But, he also threw 1-Interception, lost a fumble, and took 9, count ’em 9-Sacks. The General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah decided that this was untenable. Despite Darnold wanting to stay for a team-friendly deal the GM cut him loose. Daniel Jones was the QB2. He was let loose also. The team pivoted to old friend Sam Howell as QB2 executing a trade for him with Seattle. Howell was awful in Training Camp. So, they traded him to Philadelphia. On the cusp of the season the team was without a QB2. Nature abhors a vacuum. In came Carson Wentz. Long story short: Both the QB1 and QB2 got hurt. Minnesota missed the playoffs despite having a stellar Defense and those two stud Receivers.
In the meantime Daniel Jones went to Indianapolis appearing to be re-born until injury derailed a promising season. Another NY city escapee was showing what he could do removed from the merciless Gotham spotlight. One has to wonder if John Harbaugh has paid attention as he’s left a friendly backwater for the Shark Tank of media-driven fan discontent.
Also in the meantime Sam Darnold signed a team-friendly deal with Seattle. Other than struggling against the Rams during the regular season his season was stellar. His performance parlayed into a Head Coaching gig for his Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak.
Sam Darnold was supposed to turn into a pumpkin come Big Game Time. Well, not this year…so far at least. The Ownership in Minnesota saw Sam have an outstanding game in the NFC Championship tilt. Four days later they summonsed the GM back from the Senior Bowl so they could fire him. That opens another Front Office hole that will get filled from within the system with all the subsequent cascading moves.
One decision in the NFL results in a whole series of secondary and tertiary moves. It’s all churn, all the time.
The Revised Patriot Way
The days of Bill Belichick’s “Patriot Way” are long over. But, the new guy at the helm was there when it was in its heyday. Mike Vrabel comes across as someone not to be trifled with. He’s big and imposing. He’s also a terrific communicator. New England’s approach to this team was to essentially buy a roster. The basic premise was to get good players from bad teams. There were pieces/parts there already of course. None bigger than the Quarterback Drake Maye. Another was Corner Christian Gonzalez. You remember him: Ron Rivera passed over Gonzalez to draft Emmanuel Forbes for some inexplicable reason.
Vrabel’s job was to throw this mix together into a cohesive unit. It worked for the Rams under Sean McVay. But, it has failed more times than not. The 2000 WFT may be the poster picture for failed attempts. It takes a strong leader of men to pull off this trick. Mike Vrabel is all of that.
It didn’t hurt to get Josh McDaniel back as Offensive Coordinator. He was a two-time failure as a Head Coach. His Offensive Coordinator bona fides are rock solid, however. Drake Maye’s Freshman campaign was pedestrian, at best. The upgrade in his performance this year had him within a few votes of being the League MVP.
One note on Maye. He takes Sacks; lots of them. This year he took 62-Sacks. It didn’t seem to bother him. When sacked 5 or more times in a game his record is 5-1. His Coach says that many of the “Sacks” were him scrambling out of bounds a yard or so behind the Line of Scrimmage. Jayden Daniels‘ sack totals are high also. And, the nature of many of them is the same. Someone on the Defense gets credit for that. Maybe there should be a sub-category of “Sack.” The Coach has a point. Right now the statistic is misleading.
This is not a Cinderella story. That team is put together nicely, lead brilliantly, and even more important it is poised to be a serious presence in their Division for a while. Unlike one-year contracts aplenty, which Washington used, most of these imported players will be there next year. They have three players graded “Blue:” Maye, Stefon Diggs, and Gonzalez. And, the assemblage of players is greater than the whole. In a Division where Miami is lost at sea without a compass, the Jets can’t get their boots out of the swamp mud, and Buffalo is suddenly unwound the Patriots are a serious threat to go on a multi-season run.
In a League where there are winners and losers it would be remiss to ignore the Tennessee Titans in all of this. After Vrabel took them to the playoffs for three of his first four years there the team traded away A.J. Brown, the best Receiver on the team. Two years later they fired Vrabel. Since he left their record is 6-28. The Tennessee Brain Trust should be proud of the mess they’ve made. It’s World Class.
Who You Got?
Seattle is favored by 4.5-points in this game. That’s not a huge spread. It’s certainly not the 21-points Chicago was favored over Washington in the 1942 game. Nor is it the 18.5-points the Baltimore Colts were favored over the Jets in 1969. Both of those ended in upset wins for the big underdogs. But, Seattle feels like a solid favorite.
The old rote is that turnovers decide games. Maybe. Seattle entered the post-season at -4 in Turnover Differential. That’s not exactly Super Bowl territory. Darnold’s bugaboo is that Pick under Pressure. But, in the last three games, two of them playoff games he hasn’t had one turnover. New England is +3. For those thinking that a big positive Turnover Differential is tantamount to winning a Championship these two take exception. Chicago led the League with +22. That was the good news. The bad news is that they couldn’t win without them.
The bottom line is that Seattle can survive a Darnold Turnover. It just can’t survive a Darnold meltdown.
Notes
Every hiring cycle the voices scream from the wood work to hire a young Offensive-minded Head Coach. Neither of these two coaches fill the bill. Both are Defensive guys. “But, you need an Offensive guy to develop a Quarterback.” Mike Vrabel disagrees. “You don’t want a ‘Retread.'” Mike Vrabel would like a word. This can go on for a while. New vs. Recycled is always an interesting argument. Most new guys get three-year deals. A frightening percentage of them don’t make it through the contract. By the time they learn the job they’re gone. Some succeed royally. Recycled guys get things up to speed in a hurry if they’ve learned from their previous failure. The whole thing is an argument without basis. Who fits the situation? And, who is the best Leader of Men. That’s the real job. The rest is window dressing.
John Riggins was auctioning off his memorabilia collection this week. As of this writing the results are not in. Included was the never washed jersey he wore in Super Bowl 17 complete with grass stains; his Super Bowl ring; and his Pro Football Hall of Fame ring. It’s a bit sad to see this stuff up on a block. John came on NFL Radio for an interview worth a listen. Unfortunately no link has been found. He said, “I’m not selling the Ranch; just the Lower-40.” Retirement accounts take different forms. His portfolio included memorabilia. Here’s hoping Josh Harris buys that jersey and puts it on display at the new stadium. By the way; has it really been 43-years since that run?
The next big date for the offseason calendar is March 11 when Free Agency starts. This author is on Sabbatical until then.
Enjoy the Super Bowl!
Game Information
Super Bowl 60: Sunday February 8, 2026 @ 6:30pm EST
NBC; Peacock
Play-by-play: Mike Tirico
Analyst: Cris Collinsworth
Sideline reporters: Melissa Stark, Kaylee Hartung
Rules expert: Terry McAulay
